[HOUSTON, TEXAS, 26 FEBRUARY 2003] — Synthetic rubber (SR) use in North America was flat in 2002 at 2,215 thousand metric tons (kt). Demand is expected to increase moderately by 1.5 percent in 2003, depending on a turnaround in the North American economy. After 2003 demand is expected to recover through the year 2007 with an average annual growth rate of 1.6%, according to the forecast of the International Institute of Synthetic Rubber Producers (IISRP).
Automotive Elastomers
Use of automotive elastomers decreased at an average rate of 0.5 percent in 2002. Ethylene propylene rubber (EP(D)M) decreased by 1.6 percent from 306 kt in 2001 to 301 kt in 2002. Acrylonitrile butadiene rubber (NBR) was flat at 84 kt in 2002. Polychloroprene rubber (CR), however, decreased by 6.5 percent, from 57 kt in 2001 to 54 kt last year.
Auto-related elastomers, excluding original equipment tires, are forecast to increase at an annual rate of 1.8 percent over the next five years. EP(D)M, which averaged growth rates around 5 percent in the 1990’s, should rise at an annual average rate of 2.9 percent from 301 kt in 2002 to 348 kt in 2007. NBR solid remains a steady market in North America. NBR is expected to rise at an annual average rate of 1.7 percent from 84 kt in 2002 to 91 kt in 2007. Polychloroprene rubber, with continuing substitution and relocation of its customer base, is expected to decrease at an average rate of 0.5 percent to 52 kt in 2007. Specialty Rubbers continue to grow as increased heat and chemical resistance drive the automotive companies to higher performance materials.
Tire Elastomers
Total use of tire elastomers was up by 2.2 percent in North America. Demand of SBR solid was down by 1.8 percent. Although SBR solid decreased, the decrease was limited to emulsion polymerized SBR. Emulsion SBR decreased 4.3 percent, while solution polymerized SBR increased by 3.8 percent. Polybutadiene rubber (BR) increased 3.7 percent. Polyisoprene rubber (IR) increased by 3.8 percent.
In 2003, tire elastomers are expected to increase moderately at 1.7 percent in North America. To 2007 the annual rate of increase for tire elastomers should continue a moderate growth of 1.5 percent, annually. SBR solid should reach 819 kt, increasing at a 1.3 annual percentage rate to 2007. Further breaking down SBR solid, solution SBR is expected to increase at an annual average rate of 2.0 percent, while emulsion SBR is expected to increase more moderately at 1.0 percent.
Growth in Natural rubber, which had a 4.9 percent growth to 1,159 kt in 2002, is predicted to increase at an annual rate of 1.6 percent over the next five years with demand of 1,252 kt in 2007.
The IISRP Statistical Committee prepares the IISRP North American forecast annually. The committee is made up of representatives from major SR producers in North and South America.
The IISRP is an international not-for-profit trade association with 47 corporate members domiciled in 21 countries who produce 90 percent of the world's supply of synthetic rubber. Incorporated in 1960 and headquartered in Houston, Texas, the Institute supports section offices in London and Tokyo. For more information, go to www.iisrp.com.
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